{ "meta": { "schema_version": "1.0", "generated_by": "scripts/build_data.py", "curated_from": "data/curated/", "model_results": "src/model/results.json", "model_results_sha256": "e67d034c0a6d570752d71ebb57b48fbf90e0d0a2b7582cf77e60ffd4c1329c4e", "succession_results": "src/model/succession_results.json", "succession_results_sha256": "b67ad361af73b2842298b1e2bb4f43a1fbad0d8e227cc6ffbf83cfa4709b7318", "funding_results": "src/model/funding_results.json", "funding_results_sha256": "cd7dfad16acb9e0af7e7f88f434d1190370aaddab2a15ed09c296d800a46e79f", "documents": { "framework": "Printed in the Plan and, where the Plan prints a card, in full in The Record and the companion volumes B to F; source src/paper.html", "addendum-a": "Printed in Hawkers and Social Protection and in the Plan's §2.11; source src/addendum_a.html", "addendum-b": "Printed in Follow the Plate, Succession Economics, the Budget Book and Method, Levers and Data; source src/addendum_b.html" }, "licence": "CC BY 4.0 (LICENSE-docs)" }, "count": 20, "earnings": { "id": "earnings", "title": "What hawkers earn", "eyebrow": "Stall 01 · The Hawker Library", "route": "/library/earnings/", "date": "2026-11-02", "standfirst": "Nobody measures what a hawker takes home. So this page pieces it together from what can be checked – rent bids, recipe sales, hawkers' own figures in the press and some anecdote – and grades each piece for how far it can be trusted.", "answer": [ "At the middle, one stall's household takes home about $2,700–3,500 a month. Above the middle, take-home rises slowly to about $5,500–8,000 at the top tenth. Then it climbs steeply: the top 1% of stalls may keep $15,000–30,000 a month.", "These are household figures for one stall, in 2026 prices, and often two people's work. Read the bottom half as fairly firm, the top tenth as indicative, and the top 1% as a plausible range rather than a measurement." ], "units": "Singapore dollars a month, take-home for one stall's household, in 2026 prices.", "percentiles": [ { "p": "P10", "q": 10, "low": 0, "high": 1000, "confidence": "firm", "model": "p10", "model_value": 495 }, { "p": "P25", "q": 25, "low": 1300, "high": 2000, "confidence": "firm", "model": "p25", "model_value": 1568 }, { "p": "P50", "q": 50, "low": 2700, "high": 3500, "confidence": "firm", "model": "p50", "model_value": 2720 }, { "p": "P75", "q": 75, "low": 4000, "high": 5500, "confidence": "indicative", "model": "p75", "model_value": 3933 }, { "p": "P90", "q": 90, "low": 5500, "high": 8000, "confidence": "indicative", "model": "p90", "model_value": 5140 }, { "p": "P95", "q": 95, "low": 8000, "high": 12000, "confidence": "plausible", "model": null, "model_value": null }, { "p": "P99", "q": 99, "low": 15000, "high": 30000, "confidence": "plausible", "model": null, "model_value": null } ], "confidence": { "firm": "Fairly firm", "indicative": "Indicative", "plausible": "A plausible range" }, "chart": { "title": "What one stall's household takes home a month, by percentile", "sub": "Ranges from the graded evidence below, in 2026 prices. The dots are the Library's own model (the Technical Paper, G.3), which stops at the top tenth.", "max": 30000 }, "model_note": "The Library's own model agrees at the middle. It lets a stall's plates a day vary by only about 15% either way, so it has no top tail: its top tenth stops at $5,140 a month (the Technical Paper, G.3). Its numbers do not change.", "grades_intro": "Every data point carries one of five grades. The lower the grade, the less it should move a number on its own.", "grades": [ { "grade": "A", "name": "Official", "what": "Parliamentary replies, NEA tender results and cost surveys, MTI papers", "trust": "Firm, but none measures income directly" }, { "grade": "B", "name": "Named in the press", "what": "A named hawker's own figures, reported by a mainstream outlet", "trust": "Self-reported and unaudited; usually the stall's best days" }, { "grade": "C", "name": "Inferred from a price", "what": "Rent bids, recipe and stall sale prices, takeover listings, journalists' worked examples", "trust": "A price someone paid or asked; the income behind it is an inference" }, { "grade": "D", "name": "Anecdote", "what": "Reddit, forums, blogs, unnamed sources", "trust": "One person's account; useful only for the shape" }, { "grade": "E", "name": "Not evidence", "what": "Commercial \"financial model\" sites with generic figures", "trust": "Left out: their numbers are not about Singapore stalls" } ], "no_official": "The Government has said plainly that it does not track hawkers' earnings, because hawkers are self-employed (MSE, April 2022). So no grade A source gives income itself.", "no_official_sources": [ { "id": "mse-2022-04-oral-reply-pq-impact-hawkers", "s_no": "S.13", "title": "Oral reply to PQ on impact on hawkers' earnings and affordability (Leon Perera)", "publisher": "MSE", "date": "2022-04-04", "url": "https://www.mse.gov.sg/latest-news/oral-reply-to-pq-on-impact-of-hawkers-earnings-affordability/" } ], "evidence_intro": "Twenty data points, newest first within each grade. The last column reads what each implies for one stall's monthly take-home. Where that is an inference, it says so.", "evidence": [ { "sources": [ { "id": "mse-2024-09-09-hawker-stall-rentals", "s_no": "S.418", "title": "Oral reply to PQ on hawker stall rentals", "publisher": "Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment", "date": "2024-09-09", "url": "https://www.mse.gov.sg/latest-news/oral-reply-to-pq-on-hawker-stall-rentals/" } ], "grade": "A", "date": "Sep 2024", "says": "Median winning cooked-food bid about $1,800 a month (2023). One stall in five let at $500 or less. Marine Parade's top five bids all above $8,000.", "implies": "A fifth of stalls draw almost no competition: the bottom is weak. The top bidders expect a surplus well above $8,000 a month before rent." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "mothership-2026-10-maxwell-record-bid", "s_no": "S.433", "title": "Record $7,911 bid for a stall at Maxwell Food Centre", "publisher": "Mothership", "date": "2026-10", "url": "https://mothership.sg/2026/10/rental-bid-maxwell-hawker-centre-food-stall/" } ], "grade": "A + B", "date": "Oct 2026", "says": "A record Maxwell bid of $7,911 a month, and five bids above $7,000. The current tenant, a drinks and breakfast stall, reports about $1,000 a day in sales (via Lianhe Zaobao).", "implies": "About $26,000 a month in sales on 26 days. After rent and stock, our estimate is $6,000–10,000 kept (an inference)." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "ips-2024-06-when-hawker-brands-expand", "s_no": "S.434", "title": "When hawker brands expand: impact and implications of commodification", "publisher": "Institute of Policy Studies", "date": "2024-06", "url": "https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/docs/default-source/ips/when-hawker-brands-expand-impact-and-implications-of-commodification.pdf" } ], "grade": "A", "date": "Jun 2024", "says": "A Newton stall bid of $6,810 a month (Aug 2023); tenders as low as $1.", "implies": "What stalls are worth runs from nothing to about $7,000 a month in rent alone." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "lkyspp-2024-cooking-or-cooked", "s_no": "S.273", "title": "Cooking or Cooked? (Futures of Singapore hawker culture case study)", "publisher": "Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, NUS", "date": "2024-04", "url": "https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/docs/cases/futuresgphawkerculture_socpol_sgp_nil_en_202404.pdf?sfvrsn=c331050a_1" } ], "grade": "A + C", "date": "2024", "says": "A record drinks-stall bid of $10,028 a month at Chomp Chomp (2018).", "implies": "A bidder at that level expects $13,000–15,000 a month before rent (an inference: the rent plus a working wage)." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "mti-2015-hawker-price-cost-drivers", "s_no": "S.65", "title": "Examining the cost drivers of hawker food prices (Economic Survey feature article, 1Q 2015)", "publisher": "Ministry of Trade and Industry", "date": "2015", "url": "https://isomer-user-content.by.gov.sg/1004/7b487980-2bf7-4b54-b403-5f18dfe5b71c/fa_1q15.pdf" } ], "grade": "A", "date": "2015", "says": "NEA's cost survey of 2012–13: an average stall spends $8,000–9,200 a month; raw materials are 59% of it.", "implies": "A typical stall turns over $10,000–13,000 a month and keeps a thin slice." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "leong-mun-wai-2024-11-motion-hawker-culture", "s_no": "S.435", "title": "Motion on hawker culture: opening speech", "publisher": "Leong Mun Wai", "date": "2024-11", "url": "https://leongmunwai.sg/motion-on-hawker-culture-opening-speech/" } ], "grade": "B", "date": "Nov 2024", "says": "About half of stallholders received Workfare in 2020, a Member said in Parliament (no source given).", "implies": "If right, about half took home under roughly $2,300 a month in a Covid year." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "today-2024-07-22-coffeeshop-rents", "s_no": "S.296", "title": "The long read: Singaporeans want cheap and good hawker food, hawkers need to make money — how do we square the circle?", "publisher": "TODAY (republished by Malay Mail)", "date": "2024-07-22", "url": "https://www.malaymail.com/news/singapore/2024/07/22/the-long-read-singaporeans-want-cheap-and-good-hawker-food-hawkers-need-to-make-money-how-do-we-square-the-circle/144527" } ], "grade": "B", "date": "Jul 2024", "says": "A roast-meat hawker at Amoy Street spends about $22,000 a month to run his stall (2024). Several hawkers report costs above $10,000 a month, and profits down by as much as 40% on five years earlier.", "implies": "Strong stalls turn over $25,000 or more a month; margins were squeezed in 2022–24." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "aljazeera-2020-05-coronavirus-hawker-trade", "s_no": "S.436", "title": "Coronavirus eats into Singapore's struggling hawker trade", "publisher": "Al Jazeera", "date": "2020-05", "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/coronavirus-eats-singapores-struggling-hawker-trade-200504090429208.html" } ], "grade": "B", "date": "May 2020", "says": "A Newton barbecue seafood stall took up to $1,800 a day before Covid.", "implies": "About $45,000 a month in sales. With seafood costs, our estimate is $10,000–15,000 kept (an inference)." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "yahoo-nasi-lemak-ayam-taliwang", "s_no": "S.437", "title": "Former Singapore Airlines flight attendant's nasi lemak business (Nasi Lemak Ayam Taliwang)", "publisher": "Yahoo News", "date": null, "url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/former-singapore-airlines-flight-attendant-022752327.html" } ], "grade": "B", "date": "undated", "says": "A Michelin-listed nasi lemak brand takes $800–4,000 a day an outlet. Its founder took under $5,000 a month in its first months; it now has 31 outlets.", "implies": "One successful stall can reach $100,000 a month in sales, and then becomes a chain." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "malaymail-2017-06-bib-gourmand-sales", "s_no": "S.438", "title": "Singapore hawker stalls see spike in sales after Bib Gourmand listing", "publisher": "Malay Mail", "date": "2017-06-24", "url": "https://www.malaymail.com/news/eat/drink/2017/06/24/singapore-hawker-stalls-see-spike-in-sales-after-bib-gourmand-listing/1406289" } ], "grade": "B", "date": "Jun 2017", "says": "A Bib Gourmand soup stall sold about 300 bowls a day; the listing lifted sales by 20–30%.", "implies": "At $5–6 a bowl, about $40,000 a month in sales. Our estimate is $10,000–16,000 kept (an inference)." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "vulcanpost-2021-01-hawker-chan", "s_no": "S.439", "title": "Hawker Chan: the world's cheapest Michelin-starred meal", "publisher": "Vulcan Post", "date": "2021-01", "url": "https://vulcanpost.com/728350/hawker-chan-worlds-cheapest-michelin-starred-meal" } ], "grade": "B", "date": "Jan 2021", "says": "After the Michelin star, business grew three to four times; the stall capped itself at 200 plates a day.", "implies": "Even famous stalls hit a ceiling of hands and hours. The top end is capped by capacity, not demand." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "tabla-2024-12-mutton-soup-stall", "s_no": "S.440", "title": "A mutton soup stall on $1 rent", "publisher": "Tabla", "date": "2024-12", "url": "https://www.tabla.com.sg/news/1-month-mutton-soup-stall" } ], "grade": "B", "date": "Dec 2024", "says": "A mutton soup stall on $1 rent makes about 10 bowls a day and $1,000 a month profit.", "implies": "The bottom: a near-free stall run as a part-time craft." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "mothership-2022-06-china-street-fritters-sale", "s_no": "S.56", "title": "China Street Fritters puts its recipe and business up for sale", "publisher": "Mothership", "date": "2022-06", "url": "https://mothership.sg/2022/06/china-street-fritters-sale//amp" } ], "grade": "C", "date": "Jun 2022", "says": "An 80-year Maxwell stall asked $1 million for its recipe and business, then cut it to $500,000. The seller said a buyer could recoup it in three years.", "implies": "The seller's claim implies about $14,000–28,000 a month in profit. It is a seller's claim, so read it as a ceiling." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "mothership-2023-08-koungs-wan-tan-mee", "s_no": "S.57", "title": "Koung's Wan Tan Mee to close; bids for its recipe turned down", "publisher": "Mothership", "date": "2023-08", "url": "https://mothership.sg/2023/08/koungs-wantan-mee-closing//amp" } ], "grade": "C", "date": "Aug 2023", "says": "A 57-year wanton mee stall turned down bids of $600,000–800,000 for its recipe.", "implies": "Buyers valued a heritage brand at several years of a strong stall's profit." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "mothership-2022-08-toa-payoh-bak-chor-mee-sale", "s_no": "S.58", "title": "Toa Payoh bak chor mee stall asks $500,000 for its recipe", "publisher": "Mothership", "date": "2022-08", "url": "https://mothership.sg/2022/08/minced-meat-noodles-toa-payoh-sale//amp" } ], "grade": "C", "date": "Aug 2022", "says": "A 37-year bak chor mee stall asked $500,000 for its recipe.", "implies": "As above: an asking price, not a sale." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "mothership-2020-08-yong-huat-recipe-sale", "s_no": "S.59", "title": "Yong Huat Hokkien mee sells its stall and recipes for $20,000", "publisher": "Mothership", "date": "2020-08", "url": "https://mothership.sg/2020/08/yong-huat-sell-recipe//amp" } ], "grade": "C", "date": "Aug 2020", "says": "A well-known Hokkien mee stall sold its stall and recipes for $20,000.", "implies": "Most heritage stalls are worth far less than the famous few." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "singsaver-dollars-and-sense-cost-of-hawker-stall", "s_no": "S.441", "title": "The true cost of running a hawker stall in Singapore (Dollars and Sense)", "publisher": "SingSaver", "date": "2016", "url": "https://www.singsaver.com.sg/blog/the-true-cost-of-running-a-hawker-stall-in-singapore" } ], "grade": "C", "date": "c. 2016", "says": "A worked example for a young hawker pair: 200 customers a day at $5, $22,000 a month in sales and $13,000 in costs.", "implies": "About $9,000 a month for the stall – $4,500 each – over 13-hour days." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "mothership-2022-09-yishun-coffeeshop-rent", "s_no": "S.442", "title": "Yishun coffeeshop stall rents", "publisher": "Mothership", "date": "2022-09", "url": "https://mothership.sg/2022/09/yishun-coffeeshop-rent//amp" }, { "id": "mothership-2022-05-toa-payoh-coffeeshop-rents-double", "s_no": "S.443", "title": "Toa Payoh coffeeshop rents double", "publisher": "Mothership", "date": "2022-05", "url": "https://mothership.sg/2022/05/toa-payoh-coffee-shop-rent-double//amp" }, { "id": "homeanddecor-2026-hdb-coffeeshop-stall-rent", "s_no": "S.301", "title": "How to rent a HDB coffee shop stall? (Pay $4,000 to $10,000 rent monthly)", "publisher": "Home & Decor", "date": "2026-04-01", "url": "https://www.homeanddecor.com.sg/how-to/rent-hdb-coffee-shop-stall-store" } ], "grade": "C", "date": "May 2022 – Apr 2026", "says": "Coffeeshop stall rents of $4,000–10,000 a month. A char kway teow stall paid $7,000–8,000; 10 of 14 stalls left one coffeeshop at $10,000.", "implies": "Coffeeshop stalls that stay at $7,000–10,000 rent must clear more than that before rent. Most cannot." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "reddit-2025-12-r-singapore-hawker-earnings", "s_no": "S.445", "title": "Thread on hawker earnings, r/singapore", "publisher": "Reddit", "date": "2025-12", "url": null } ], "grade": "D", "date": "late 2025", "says": "A hawker couple take home $8,000–10,000 together ($3,000–4,000 each, plus $2,000 for a car), working 6 am to 9 pm, six days a week. Another stall: $2,000–3,000 off-peak and $10,000 at peak. A hawker's assistant earns $2,200 at best, a cook $3,000.", "implies": "Good stalls are two-person households, and take-home swings with the season." }, { "sources": [ { "id": "kitchenunionsg-2024-10-how-much-hawker-make", "s_no": "S.444", "title": "How much does a hawker make in Singapore?", "publisher": "KitchenUnionSG", "date": "2024-10", "url": "https://kitchenunionsg.com/how-much-does-a-hawker-make-in-singapore/" } ], "grade": "D", "date": "Oct 2024", "says": "Net $3,000–4,000 a month is typical (attributed to NEA, unverified); $2,000 or less for struggling stalls.", "implies": "Consistent with the middle. The NEA attribution could not be found." } ], "excluded": "Commercial model sites (financialmodelslab.com, for example) quote figures such as \"$331K–189M\" for a hawker stall. They are grade E and left out.", "drivers_intro": "The top stalls are not a different trade. They do the same sums at a larger scale, and a few things push them there.", "drivers": [ { "title": "Plates, then price.", "text": "Take-home is roughly plates times price times margin. A typical stall sells 150–200 plates a day; the famous ones sell several times that. Volume moves take-home more than price does, because a $1 rise can cost 30% of an item's sales (TODAY, 2024)." }, { "title": "Family hands.", "text": "Most high earners are couples or families. Unpaid family labour is the margin: a stall that pays an assistant $2,000–2,500 a month gives up a third of a typical take-home." }, { "title": "Hours and days.", "text": "The $8,000–10,000 couple works 15-hour days, six days a week. Per hour, a top stall can earn less than an office job." }, { "title": "Location and rent.", "text": "Prime centres (Maxwell, Newton, Chomp Chomp, Amoy Street) carry tourist and office demand, and rents that only strong stalls can carry. A fifth of tenders draw $500 or less, so the weakest sites hold the weakest stalls." }, { "title": "Drinks and kopi.", "text": "Drinks carry the highest margins and sell with almost every meal. Two of the record bids above are for drinks stalls." }, { "title": "Fame.", "text": "A guide listing or a viral post adds 20–30% at once, until hands and hours cap it (Hawker Chan held at 200 plates a day)." }, { "title": "Seasons.", "text": "Take-home swings: one account gives $2,000–3,000 off-peak and $10,000 at peak. Annual averages hide this." }, { "title": "The exit.", "text": "The top end shows most clearly in what famous stalls are worth on sale: $500,000 to $1 million asked for recipes, against $20,000 for an ordinary well-known stall." } ], "gaps_intro": "The top end rests on grade B and C evidence. Four sources could firm it up, roughly in order of ease.", "gaps": [ { "title": "NEA's own cost survey.", "text": "NEA surveys stallholders' costs every year. The same survey could report sales and net margin by decile, without naming a stall. It is the one source that could give a real distribution." }, { "title": "IRAS statistics.", "text": "IRAS publishes taxpayer statistics. The trade income of sole proprietors under the food-stall industry code, by band, would give the whole curve, tail included." }, { "title": "The hawkers themselves.", "text": "A short, anonymous survey through FMAS and the centre associations, or the Plan's own listening sessions, asking for a typical week's sales and costs. Self-reported, but at scale." }, { "title": "Payment and delivery data.", "text": "E-payment and delivery platforms see most stalls' sales. An aggregate by centre and decile would be grade B at least, and timely." } ], "gaps_close": "Until one of these exists, the Library shows the top end as a range with its grade, not as a number.", "used_in": [ { "ref": "G.3", "text": "The Technical Paper, G.3: the model's note on its missing top tail" }, { "ref": "B.1", "text": "Follow the Plate, D.1: the hawker's share is for a typical stall" }, { "ref": "§1.1", "text": "The Plan, §1.1: the second blank, what hawkers earn" }, { "ref": "§2.3", "text": "The Plan, §2.3: recipe sales and the cap on a goodwill payment" }, { "ref": "§7.7", "text": "The Plan, §7.7: the spread, not only the median" } ], "method": "Each range is read across the evidence above; it is not a statistical fit. The bottom half rests on official rent figures and several accounts that agree. The top tenth rests on bids and named hawkers' own figures. The top 1% rests on recipe prices and the best-selling stalls in the press. Corrections and better data are welcome.", "model_p90": 5140 } }